Meteorological factors and domestic new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities: A time-series analysis

Zonglin He; Yiqiao Chin; Jian Huang; Yi He; Babatunde O. Akinwunmi; Shinning Yu; Casper J.P. Zhang; Wai-kit Ming

Human respiratory pathogens (bacterial pathogens like pneumococcus and viruses like rubella and influenza) usually exhibit an annual pattern showing an increase in incidence during winter, and decrease during the summer (seasonality). Despite much data on influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and the SARS 2003 outbreak following the pattern, it is difficult to predict whether COVID-19 would follow the trend and will be eliminated in the coming summer, as our understanding of the forces driving the seasonality of infectious diseases remains limited. Since influenza is a common viral disease, a proportion of the population already possesses some levels of immunity and when more patients recover, herd immunity constrain the transmission of the virus. The low or absent prevalence trend of SARS or MERS-CoV in the summer was also mentioned to be strongly relied on the use of effective therapeutic treatment and strict public health measures (11, 12) . However, SARS-CoV-2 is a novel virus to humans, immunity to this ongoing virus pandemic is limited and an effective pharmaceutical therapy or vaccine prevention is yet to be found.