Author: ibrahim Halil Aslan; Mahir Demir; Michael Morgan Wise; Suzanne Lenhart
Title: Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: fsjze3t2_34
Snippet: When we look at the change in the quarantine class, nearly the entire province of Hubei was quarantined by February 15, 2020 (See Figure 3 , February 15 corresponds the day 25 in the figure). The percentage of the population transitioning from the susceptible class to the quarantine class attains its maximum level between January 27, 2020 and February 10, 2020, and by February 15, almost all of the population were in quarantine. This result makes.....
Document: When we look at the change in the quarantine class, nearly the entire province of Hubei was quarantined by February 15, 2020 (See Figure 3 , February 15 corresponds the day 25 in the figure). The percentage of the population transitioning from the susceptible class to the quarantine class attains its maximum level between January 27, 2020 and February 10, 2020, and by February 15, almost all of the population were in quarantine. This result makes sense since the state government imposed a quarantine in the state on January 23, 2020, initially recommending quarantine and finally forcing the people into quarantine to guarantee social distancing. This action seems to have worked to great effect, reducing the contact rate by about 98.9% (See Table 1 for the parameter, r, the reduction rate due to the quarantine).
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