Mobility-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 spreading

Chicchi, Lorenzo; Giambagli, Lorenzo; Buffoni, Lorenzo; Fanelli, Duccio

The rapid spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and its dramatic consequences, are forcing policymakers to take strict measures in order to keep the population safe. At the same time, societal and economical interactions are to be safeguarded. A wide spectrum of containment measures have been hence devised and implemented, in different countries and at different stages of the pandemic evolution. Mobility towards workplace or retails, public transit usage and permanence in residential areas constitute reliable tools to indirectly photograph the actual grade of the imposed containment protocols. In this paper, taking Italy as an example, we will develop and test a deep learning model which can forecast various spreading scenarios based on different mobility indices, at a regional level. We will show that containment measures contribute to"flatten the curve"and quantify the minimum time frame necessary for the imposed restrictions to result in a perceptible impact, depending on their associated grade.