Human Mobility and COVID-19: A Negative Binomial Regression Analysis

Oztig, Lacin Idil; Askin, Oykum Esra

Abstract Objectives This study aimed to examine the link between human mobility and the number of COVID-19 infected people in countries. Study Design Our dataset covers 144 countries for which complete data are available. In order to analyze the link between human mobility and COVID-19 infected people, our study focused on the volume of air travel, the number of airports and the Schengen system. Methods In order to analyze the variation in COVID-19 infected people in countries, we used negative binomial regression analysis. Results Our findings suggest a positive relationship between higher volume of airline passenger traffic carried in a country and higher numbers of COVID-19 patients. We further found that countries which have a higher number of airports are associated with higher number of COVID-19 cases. Schengen countries, countries which have higher population density and higher percentage of elderly population are also found to be more likely to have more COVID-19 cases than other countries. Conclusions The paper brings a novel insight into the COVID-19 pandemic from a human mobility perspective. Future research should assess the impacts of the scale of sea/bus/car travel on the epidemic. The findings of this paper are relevant for public health authorities, community and health-service providers and policy-makers.