Mitigating COVID-19 outbreak via high testing capacity and strong transmission-intervention in the United States

Shi Chen; Qin Li; Song Gao; Yuhao Kang; Xun Shi

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.03.20052720 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 3 : (A) Susceptible population (S) on April 29, 2020 as a function of α r . S(α r = 1) is the susceptible population on April 29 computed with the report rate set as the original report rate inferred from the data assimilation step. In all states, S increases as α r decreases, meaning that more people stay unaffected when a higher report is enacted. (B) R e , the basic reproduction number, on April 29 for different α b and α r in NY. The red line is the level set R e = 1. It can be seen that increasing the reported rate helps diminish the reproductive number, but cannot reduce R e under 1 if the original transmission rate b 0 is applied; (C) Susceptible population on April 29 for different D q . S(α r = 1) is the same as in (A). S significantly depends on the period from expose to quarantine.