Author: Marco Claudio Traini; Carla Caponi; Riccardo Ferrari; Giuseppe Vittorio De Socio
Title: A study of SARS-CoV-2 evolution in Italy: from early days to secondary effects after social distancing Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 65fwicjz_26
Snippet: Assuming the parametrization of table I (see Appendix) and θ = 0.9 as the portion of pre-symptomatic population, one can easily fit the present behavior of the Infected compartment members. (cfr. Fig. 7 , upper panel, dashed curve). The good comparison between data and model can be valid for a short time, but we are not interested in reproducing the exact numbers, but the relative effects of a possible secondary event. The occurrence of a second.....
Document: Assuming the parametrization of table I (see Appendix) and θ = 0.9 as the portion of pre-symptomatic population, one can easily fit the present behavior of the Infected compartment members. (cfr. Fig. 7 , upper panel, dashed curve). The good comparison between data and model can be valid for a short time, but we are not interested in reproducing the exact numbers, but the relative effects of a possible secondary event. The occurrence of a secondary event is unavoidable since the first outbreak did not exhaust its virulence: when normalcy is activated a second peak appears enhancing the tail value of the distribution.
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