Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests

Reinhard German; Anatoli Djanatliev; Lisa Maile; Peter Bazan; Holger Hackstein

A multiple-input deep convolutional neural network model is used in [13] to predict the number of confirmed cases in China with respect to the number of cases from the past five days. However, no measures such as contact restrictions or quarantine can be taken into account, but these have a significant impact on the spread of the virus and can lead to a subexponential growth in the number of cases. Using China as an example, this influence is examined in [14] with an extended SIR model and in [15] with an extended SEIR model. The agent-based simulation model [16] examines the influence of interventions on the spread of the virus in Singapore. To predict the local and nationwide spread of the virus, [17] combines a SEIR model based on differential equations with a metapopulation model based on traffic flows to model intercity mobility. The influence of traffic restrictions on an international level is examined in [18] with a combined individual-based subpopulation and a flow-based metapopulation model.