Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests

Reinhard German; Anatoli Djanatliev; Lisa Maile; Peter Bazan; Holger Hackstein

We now present the results obtained with the SD model. We calibrated the model to reflect the real progress of the disease in Germany while staying as close as possible to the RKI values. Fig. 4 shows the model results with this calibration, the parameters are provided in the Appendix. The left upper curve show a contact index which we have defined in order to illustrate the overall effect of the interventions on the social contact abilities of people. It gives the contact abilities averaged over all people who are not symptomatic: if there would be no intervention, all people would have full contact abilities and the index would be equal to one. Maximum values of critical figures over the simulated time period such as the number of hospitalized or the number of patients needing ICU are shown in the right upper bar chart. In the middle row the progress of relevant figures such as number of symptomatic, other infected and exposed persons is shown on the left and daily deaths, ICU, and hospitalization needs on the right. The lower row shows on the left cumulated numbers of deaths and people who had been symptomatic. On the right, the grow of the number of persons is shown for which immunity can be assumed (if this number reaches ca. 60%, herd immunity can be assumed). The curve is split into known and unknown ones. The unknown ones are constituted in principle by those who had been symptomatic and are recovered or an AB test has been performed for them. In Fig. 4 no such AB tests are considered, but below we will investigate effects of AB tests.