Modeling layered non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2 in the United States with Corvid

Dennis L Chao; Assaf P Oron; Devabhaktuni Srikrishna; Michael Famulare

Our model has many obvious limitations. It was developed as the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 was becoming understood early in the pandemic. We assumed that SARS-CoV-2 could be modeled as a more transmissible influenza with a longer serial interval. The seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is not yet known and is not part of the model. Our model does not estimate hospitalizations or deaths due to COVID-19. Morbidity and mortality rate estimates are rapidly evolving and depend on local health facilities, and they can be applied to our model output of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Hospitals, healthcare workers, and other high-risk professionals are not included in our model. Finally, our work is based on an older influenza model [13] , so it uses US Census data from the year 2000. The 2000 Census included a detailed commuter survey that Corvid requires to simulate movement between census tracts, so it would be difficult to update it with newer Census data.