Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran

Ali Ahmadi; Majid Shirani; Fereydoon Rahmani

COVID-19 is an emerging disease, these viruses cause direct and indirect transmission of respiratory diseases with a wide range of asymptomatic, cold symptoms from respiratory/fever symptoms, cough, shortness of breath to kidney failure and death, leading to more severe respiratory illness epidemic and pandemic in most countries of the world (9) . The complete clinical manifestation is not clear yet and understanding of the transmission risk is incomplete (10) , but the virus is believed transmitted mostly via contact, droplets, aspirates, feces, and aerosols transmission is highly possible. individuals are all generally susceptible to the virus. the mean incubation period was 5.2 days (4.1-7 days), and the basic reproductive number (R0) was reported 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4 to 3.9) (11) . In another study, the mean incubation period of COVID-19 was ranges from 0-24 days with mean of 6.4 days. The R0 of COVID-19 at the early phase regardless of different prediction models, which is higher than SARS and MERS and the majority of patients (80.9%) were considered asymptomatic or mild pneumonia (12) . The case fatality ratio was 2% (12), 2.3% (8), 3.46% (13) and elderly men with underlying diseases were at a higher risk of death (13) . As of the time of the up to date this article, March 29, 2020, COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in more than 200 countries (most prevalent in the United States, Italy, China, Spain, Germany, Iran, France) in . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.