Author: Erida Gjini
Title: Modeling Covid-19 dynamics for real-time estimates and projections: an application to Albanian data Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: ela022bo_1
Snippet: There are currently many efforts to understand Covid-19 dynamics around the world using mathematical models (2; 3; 4; 5) . The mathematical model I use here is based on SEIR dynamics (Figure 1 , simplifying the model by (4) to a version without age structure. We model the number of susceptible individuals S, exposed individuals E whose transmission may be considered negligible, infected symptomatic I S and infected asymptomatic I A individuals, a.....
Document: There are currently many efforts to understand Covid-19 dynamics around the world using mathematical models (2; 3; 4; 5) . The mathematical model I use here is based on SEIR dynamics (Figure 1 , simplifying the model by (4) to a version without age structure. We model the number of susceptible individuals S, exposed individuals E whose transmission may be considered negligible, infected symptomatic I S and infected asymptomatic I A individuals, as well as fatalities F and recovered individuals R. The total population size is given by N = S+E+I S +I A +R+F . At the beginning of the epidemic we have S(0) ≈ N.
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