Author: Robert J Challen; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova; Martin Pitt; Tom Edwards; Luke Gompels; Lucas Lacasa; Ellen Brooks-Pollock; Chris Martin; Gareth Griffith; Leon Danon
Title: Estimates of regional infectivity of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom following imposition of social distancing measures Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: fqvrlrv0_40
Snippet: In the accompanying supplementary materials we present an animation of the R(t) over time, and in the rate of change in R(t) over time. This animation raises the possibility of waves of increasing and decreasing R(t) spreading throughout the UK. If such waves can be identified and predicted we may be able to intercept them in the future, through a targeted application of community testing and a more localised social distancing intervention. For t.....
Document: In the accompanying supplementary materials we present an animation of the R(t) over time, and in the rate of change in R(t) over time. This animation raises the possibility of waves of increasing and decreasing R(t) spreading throughout the UK. If such waves can be identified and predicted we may be able to intercept them in the future, through a targeted application of community testing and a more localised social distancing intervention. For this to be an option however we will need much more granular data on the location of confirmed and suspected cases, and to as far as possible reduce the time delay between infection and detection.
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