Author: Robert J Challen; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova; Martin Pitt; Tom Edwards; Luke Gompels; Lucas Lacasa; Ellen Brooks-Pollock; Chris Martin; Gareth Griffith; Leon Danon
Title: Estimates of regional infectivity of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom following imposition of social distancing measures Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: fqvrlrv0_41
Snippet: Globally COVID-19 case growth rates are observed to pass through different phases 29 , with an initial 35% day on day growth rate, typically falling to 22%, presumably after both the introduction of social distancing measures, and as exponential growth in resolved cases reduces the size of the infective cohort. However, because of changes in test strategy, the step wise implementation of social distancing measures, and the variable lag introduced.....
Document: Globally COVID-19 case growth rates are observed to pass through different phases 29 , with an initial 35% day on day growth rate, typically falling to 22%, presumably after both the introduction of social distancing measures, and as exponential growth in resolved cases reduces the size of the infective cohort. However, because of changes in test strategy, the step wise implementation of social distancing measures, and the variable lag introduced by the incubation period, it is difficult to get a picture of the causative influence of social distancing measures on the drop in R(t) rates over time 30 . It is however possible to note that significant changes in both R(t), and the rate of change of R(t), predate the implementation of social distancing measures in the UK.
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