Author: Morten Gram Pedersen; Matteo Meneghini
Title: A simple method to quantify country-specific effects of COVID-19 containment measures Document date: 2020_4_10
ID: aqwdg489_17
Snippet: Tc Further, we obtain an estimate of the number of infectious individual at the moment of the outbreak in the different countries and regions (Fig. 2) . Assuming that η is identical for all countries we estimate that there are large differences in this number. For Italy, the first European country hit by COVID-19, we estimate that as many as ∼1500 individuals were infectious but unidentified at the moment of the outbreak, possibly because the .....
Document: Tc Further, we obtain an estimate of the number of infectious individual at the moment of the outbreak in the different countries and regions (Fig. 2) . Assuming that η is identical for all countries we estimate that there are large differences in this number. For Italy, the first European country hit by COVID-19, we estimate that as many as ∼1500 individuals were infectious but unidentified at the moment of the outbreak, possibly because the outbreak of the disease was considered an unlikely event in the country, which therefore did not test patients with milder COVID-19 symptoms. In other European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland), which saw the epidemic arriving a few days later than Italy, the estimated initial number of infectious individuals is 600-800. In contrast, for B.C. in Canada and N.S.W. in Australia, which had more time to prepare for COVID-19, this number was only ∼200 when the number of confirmed cases reached 50.
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