Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources

Brydon Eastman; Cameron Meaney; Michelle Przedborski; Mohammad Kohandel

These results are further supported by the behaviour of peak infections vs social distancing time for various policies, as can be seen in Figure 6 . In both Quebec and Ontario, the peak number of simultaneous infections decreases as the proportion of social distancers increases. In Quebec, after approximately one month of social distancing, the peak infections reaches a constant value and further social distancing simply delays the onset of the second peak, rather than reducing its size (as can be seen in Figure 5 . This is largely because Quebec is further into the pandemic than Ontario, so the size of its first peak cannot be reduced to smaller than its subsequent peaks. In Ontario, the social distancing stop time has a significant impact on the maximum peak infection number. Specifically, for low proportions of social distancing (20% and 40%), the behaviour of the maximum peak behaves much like Quebec; however, for high proportions of social distancing (60% and 80%), the behaviour is qualitatively much different. For 60%, the maximum peak decreases as the length of social distancing increases until it levels-off at approximately six months. For 80%, the maximum peak slowly decreases until levelling-off after approximately 15 months. This is because at 80% social distancing, the main effect is delaying the peak, rather than shrinking it. These results show that choosing the proper time to end social distancing can be crucial in preventing the healthcare system from becoming overburdened.