Author: Sebastian Alexander Muller; Michael Balmer; Andreas Neumann; Kai Nagel
Title: Mobility traces and spreading of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: ejdbx7q7_139
Snippet: • Ferguson et al report critical hospital cases, while we show infected cases. Clearly, hospital cases show up later than infected cases. • The model of Ferguson et al runs for the whole country (of Great Britain), while we run the simulation for Berlin. It is plausible that the infection progresses more rapidly in a relatively homogeneous and well-connected city like Berlin than across a whole country which includes many more remote regions......
Document: • Ferguson et al report critical hospital cases, while we show infected cases. Clearly, hospital cases show up later than infected cases. • The model of Ferguson et al runs for the whole country (of Great Britain), while we run the simulation for Berlin. It is plausible that the infection progresses more rapidly in a relatively homogeneous and well-connected city like Berlin than across a whole country which includes many more remote regions. • We may have calibrated against different growth rates. The paper by Ferguson does not contain a logarithmic plot. Taking it from a linear plot, they seem to have a doubling of cases every 10 days. This is clearly much slower than current German data, which shows a tenfold increase of cases every 9 days.
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