Author: Ali Ahmadi; Majid Shirani; Fereydoon Rahmani
Title: Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: 95ka0p8n_16
Snippet: There are three important points in this epidemic. The first point is to help calm down the atmosphere of society and to avoid tension in societies, and the second is to properly interpret the COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR) in Iran and calculate it tactfully. It should be taken into account in interpreting this index, since the denominator of the fraction is only positive cases in hospital beds, and numerator is the number of died positive am.....
Document: There are three important points in this epidemic. The first point is to help calm down the atmosphere of society and to avoid tension in societies, and the second is to properly interpret the COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR) in Iran and calculate it tactfully. It should be taken into account in interpreting this index, since the denominator of the fraction is only positive cases in hospital beds, and numerator is the number of died positive among the positive cases (of those who are hospitalized and/or die). This index should also be calculated until the end of the epidemic period, and if it is until the end of the epidemic and their outcome (death/recovery) is determined, this indicator will approach the real number. The estimated case fatality ratio among medically attended patients was reported approximately 2% (12) and the true ratio may not be known for some time (25) . Compared to this index with Iran, it seems to be much higher in Iran.
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