Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran

Ali Ahmadi; Majid Shirani; Fereydoon Rahmani

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037671 doi: medRxiv preprint worldwide (14). In Iran, the first case of COVID-19 was reported on Day 30 of month 12 (Bahman) in Iranian calendar from Qom, and we used the reported data until March 29, 2020 (15). As of the time of the up to date this article, March 29, 2020, According to the Daily Reports in Iran, 38309 COVID-19, 2640 deaths were reported. in recent weeks, Firstly, universities and schools, then public places and shrines were closed. People are referring to health centers and hospitals, and the public is almost alarmed by the epidemic of panic and inaccurate reporting in cyberspace. The recurring and important questions are: How is the size of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Iran and how long and when will the epidemic go down? We cannot answer these questions with certainty, but it can be investigated in terms of pathogenic behavior (coronavirus), host conditions, behavior (human) and environmental factors of coronavirus transmission, daily reports of definitive COVID-19 patients released by Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the use of modeling given the assumptions and the percentage of error. Indeed, although the models are different, multiple, and changeable in nature and do not insist on the correctness of the forecasts, the decision-making conditions for health policy-makers and authorities are more transparent and helpful (16) . This study aimed to model and determine the epidemic trend and predict COVID-19 patients in Iran using mathematical and statistical modeling.