Pandemic as a New Factor in Sustainable Economic Development in 2020: Scientific Analytics and Management Prospects

Sozinova, Anastasia A.; Sofiina, Elena V.; Safargaliyev, Mansur F.; Varlamov, Arthur V.

Purpose: The purpose of the research is to test the hypothesis and scientific analytics of the pandemic COVID-19 as a new factor in the sustainable development of the economy in 2020, as well as to identify the prospects for managing this factor in the interests of maintaining sustainability. Design/Methodology/Approach: Statistics on the manifestations of sustainable development, the pandemic of COVID-19 and its factors in the top 12 countries with the largest number of deaths were analyzed. The method of regression analysis, firstly, determines the dependence of the manifestations of sustainable development highlighted in chapter 2 of this book on the proportion of deaths in COVID-19 by constructing regression curves. Secondly, a multifactorial model of the regression dependence of the proportion of deaths at COVID-19 from the selected potential factors - health care costs, the number of doctors per 1 thousand people was compiled population, number of hospital beds per 1 thousand people population, and R&D expenditure. Findings: It is justified that the pandemic is an independent (isolated from the economic crisis) as a new factor in the sustainable development of the economy in 2020, impeding economic growth. A scientific analysis conducted on the example of the top 12 countries with the largest number of deaths from COVID-19 revealed significant prospects for managing the pandemic as a factor in sustainable development. Originality/Value: Recommendations have been proposed to achieve zero mortality from COVID-19, suggesting an increase in health care costs by 159.20%, the number of doctors by 1 thousand people of population by 59.70%, and R&D expenditures by 9.38% for sustainable economic development.