Author: Yuan zheming; Chen Yuan
Title: A simple model to assess Wuhan lock-down effect and region efforts during COVID-19 epidemic in China Mainland Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: 3kp3ptbn_4
Snippet: Due to Wuhan lock-down, Kucharski et al (2020) estimated that the median daily reproduction number had declined from 2.35 of January 16 to 1.05 of January 30, Tian et al. (2020) estimated that the dispersal of infection to other cities was deferred 2.91 days (CI: 2.54-3.29). However, Read et al (2020) suggested that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective r.....
Document: Due to Wuhan lock-down, Kucharski et al (2020) estimated that the median daily reproduction number had declined from 2.35 of January 16 to 1.05 of January 30, Tian et al. (2020) estimated that the dispersal of infection to other cities was deferred 2.91 days (CI: 2.54-3.29). However, Read et al (2020) suggested that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on February 4. Do these large-scale public health interventions really work well in China? Besides, hundreds of officials were fired or appointed rapidly according to their incompetent or outstanding performances during the epidemic. How to assess the efforts of different regions in China Mainland against COVID-19?
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