Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests

Reinhard German; Anatoli Djanatliev; Lisa Maile; Peter Bazan; Holger Hackstein

This modeling approach allows to implement a more realistic simulation. In this case each person is represented by an agent which has individual attributes and follows one or more behavior models. In our ABS model agents are combined in different groups which are related to the locations where they can meet and infect each other considering group-related probabilities. Those are home/family, leisure (including activities like shopping, sports, etc.), being at hospital, and work. Depending on the current contact reduction level they can change their states. In case of isolation the agent remains at the quarantine location without changing its state. In order to evaluate a profession-based exit from the lockdown, different types of workers are considered, namely, system-relevant, not system-relevant, hospital staff, and others. In particular, the latter represent the non-working population including children and retired persons. Each worker is linked to a different sized company with other workers in order to avoid direct infections between the whole working population. The total number of companies is an input parameter that allows to generate large and small companies. Similarly, different sized households are built and persons are assigned to one certain home group. Healthcare workers can meet their colleagues, but also patients who are potentially infected. The infection probability between patients and healthcare personnel can be pre-configured separately from the infection between colleagues.