Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests

Reinhard German; Anatoli Djanatliev; Lisa Maile; Peter Bazan; Holger Hackstein

Based on these assumptions the test capacity has been varied and the effects have been observed. It turns out that up to a capacity of 100K tests per day the number of people who can be excluded from contact reductions is increased significantly, afterwards less significant increase can be noticed. Even though requiring a high number of tests this does not seem to be completely out of scope if testing infrastructures can be scaled up. The effect with a capacity of 100K is illustrated in Fig. 9 . As can be seen, up to 5.4M people can be excluded additionally from interventions with these tests (compared to 25.4M without tests). With a lower number of tests, e.g., 50K per day, we would still be able to exclude 4.4M people. If we apply these tests with preference to system-relevant groups, we can significantly improve public life (as a reference, ca. 1M nurses and related jobs are registered in Germany 10 ). If we assume a more pessimistic value for the test sensitivity (75%), the effects are marginally reduced. With 50K tests per day, we would still be able to exclude 4M additional people. However, the effectiveness of AB testing significantly depends on the identification of asymptomatic recovered persons. If we assume that they cannot be identified (i.e., uniform weights for all stocks 10 https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/themen/pflege/pflegekraefte/beschaeftigte.html 11 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.