Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests

Reinhard German; Anatoli Djanatliev; Lisa Maile; Peter Bazan; Holger Hackstein

Compared to RKI, we assume a higher ICU capacity due to the report of hospital utilization (ca. 27K ICU places) 8 . The reproduction number is set to 3, meaning that on average, one infected person can spread the virus to three other persons. However, if the infected persons get symptomatic and stay at home, their contact rate is halved such that they only can infect half the number of persons. If they are isolated in a hospital, we assume that they infect on average one additional person, for example in their family, before they are isolated. We also slightly increased the number of people that require treatment in hospitals and ICUs to model the number of confirmed cases in Germany. The evolution of the virus in Germany has three distinctive time instants: 1) it started on January 22, 2) the majority of interventions have been introduced after March 22, and 3) the latest available data time when this paper has been written. We reflect the 8 https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister 8 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.