Modeling Exit Strategies from COVID-19 Lockdown with a Focus on Antibody Tests

Reinhard German; Anatoli Djanatliev; Lisa Maile; Peter Bazan; Holger Hackstein

Both models can be extended in several ways in order to study the interaction between further effects of the disease and more sophisticated exit strategies, such as benefits from PCR tests as well, age-and risk-dependent severity and fatality rates, more detailed consideration of infectiousness during the phases of illness, influence of viral load on severity, differentiation of measures for vulnerable groups of people, etc. One promising approach for this is to combine both models to a hybrid simulation model as in [5] in which both general trends and details for regions, different groups of persons, and more exit strategies can be studied. The models can be adapted to latest data as the pandemic is progressing in order to adapt interventions accordingly. The integration of digital tracing for epidemic control (alerting people in case of previous contacts with people who have been infected) [2] into the set of measures is also promising and can be investigated with the presented models.