Modelling the epidemiological trend and behavior of COVID-19 in Italy

Alessandro Rovetta; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . These values obviously refer to the population with the constant mortality rate of 3.2%; however, the real number of deaths must be strictly less than the theoretical one expected or we will talk about mutation. Thus, thanks to the results obtained from the application of the S.E.I.R. model we can foresee three possible scenarios: If, in Italy, the real next-days trend of the total infected number will be lower than that shown in figure 1, we can assume the following events set out in order of probability: the containment measures adopted 10 days ago are taking effect; Sars-Cov-2 has undergone a significant anti-evolutionary mutation. If, in Italy, the real next-days trend of the total infected number will be equal than that shown in figure 1. We assume the following events set out in order of probability: the containment measures adopted 10 days ago are not taking effect; the containment measures adopted 10 days ago are taking effect and Sars-Cov-2 has undergone a significant evolutionary mutation. If, in Italy, the real next-days trend of the total infected number will be higher than that shown in figure 1. We assume the following events set out in order of probability: the containment measures adopted 10 days ago are not taking effect and Sars-Cov-2 has undergone a significant evolutionary mutation; the S.E.I.R model is no-more representative of the COVID-19 Italian case and we should utilize the S.E.I.R.S. model. Even considering an admissible "theoretical-estimates statistical error" of ± 5% these values could not be accepted since the trend indicates a faster growth than that predicted by the model with a breakeven point between 15 and 16 March and a percentage difference in net growth.