Author: Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon
Title: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: emodr41j_18
Snippet: We therefore focused on the overall objective of distancing, which is to reduce the reproduction number. We modelled the impact of constraining spread by 25% and 33%, overlaid on existing case targeted interventions. This degree of suppression is consistent with observed impacts of combined measures less restrictive than total lockdown (13) . These reductions in transmission equated to input reproduction numbers of 1.90 and 1.69, respectively, wi.....
Document: We therefore focused on the overall objective of distancing, which is to reduce the reproduction number. We modelled the impact of constraining spread by 25% and 33%, overlaid on existing case targeted interventions. This degree of suppression is consistent with observed impacts of combined measures less restrictive than total lockdown (13) . These reductions in transmission equated to input reproduction numbers of 1.90 and 1.69, respectively, with the effective reproduction number in each scenario further reduced by quarantine and isolation measures, which limit spread of established infection.
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