Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness

Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon

The overlay of distancing measures, applied from the initial stages of the epidemic and maintained throughout, suppresses epidemic growth to a level that is within the range of plausible ICU capacity expansion. The duration of ICU exceedance remains long in the 25% case ( Figure 5A ) but this overflow occurs to a far lesser degree than following case targeted strategies only ( Figure 5B ). As anticipated, a greater reduction in transmission (33%) achieves greater benefits. Importantly, pressure on ED consultations and ward beds is also substantially eased in these scenarios, maintaining capacity along the full pathway of care. As a result, the proportion of critical cases that can access care is greatly increased. Transmission reduction of 33% makes treatment of all cases achievable in the majority of simulations if three to fivefold ICU bed capacity can be achieved (Supplementary figure 1B) . This improvement is reflected in a large reduction in unmet need (Supplementary figure 2B) .