Selected article for: "ahead prediction and pi upper limit"
Author: Roman Marchant; Noelle I Samia; Ori Rosen; Martin A Tanner; Sally Cripps
Title: Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: ijac68gh_5
    Snippet: Each day the IHME model computes a daily prediction and a 95% posterior interval (PI) for COVID19 deaths, four months into the future for each state. Thus, on March 29 there is a prediction and corresponding PI for March 30 and March 31, while on March 30 there is a prediction and corresponding PI for March 31. We call the prediction for a day made on the previous day a "1-step-ahead" prediction. Similarly, a prediction The color shows whether th.....
    Document: Each day the IHME model computes a daily prediction and a 95% posterior interval (PI) for COVID19 deaths, four months into the future for each state. Thus, on March 29 there is a prediction and corresponding PI for March 30 and March 31, while on March 30 there is a prediction and corresponding PI for March 31. We call the prediction for a day made on the previous day a "1-step-ahead" prediction. Similarly, a prediction The color shows whether the actual death counts were less than the lower limit of the 95% PI (blue), within the 95% PI (white), or above the upper limit of the 95% PI (red). The depth of the red/blue color denotes how many actual deaths were above/below the 95% PI.

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