Author: Lionel Roques; Etienne Klein; Julien Papaix; Samuel Soubeyrand
Title: Mechanistic-statistical SIR modelling for early estimation of the actual number of cases and mortality rate from COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: dqg8fkca_31
Snippet: Basic reproduction rate. With SIR systems of the form (1), the basic reproduction rate R 0 can be computed directly, based on the formula R 0 = α/β [15] . When R 0 < 1, the epidemic cannot spread in the population. When R 0 > 1, the infected compartment I increases as long as R 0 S > N = S + I + R. We computed the marginal posterior distribution of the basic reproduction rate R 0 . This leads to a mean value of R 0 of 3.2 (95%-CI: 3.1-3.3). The.....
Document: Basic reproduction rate. With SIR systems of the form (1), the basic reproduction rate R 0 can be computed directly, based on the formula R 0 = α/β [15] . When R 0 < 1, the epidemic cannot spread in the population. When R 0 > 1, the infected compartment I increases as long as R 0 S > N = S + I + R. We computed the marginal posterior distribution of the basic reproduction rate R 0 . This leads to a mean value of R 0 of 3.2 (95%-CI: 3.1-3.3). The full distribution is available in the Appendix (Fig. A3 ).
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