Mathematical Modeling of Coronavirus Reproduction Rate with Policy and Behavioral Effects

Anzum, R.; Islam, M. Z.

In this paper a modified mathematical model based on the SIR model used which can predict the spreading of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) and its effects on people in the days ahead. This model takes into account all the death, infected and recovered characteristics of this disease. To determine the extent of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus; the transmission rate (R0) is utilized for a time period from the beginning of spreading virus. In particular, it includes a novel policy to capture the R0 response in the virus spreading over time. The model estimates the vulnerability of the pandemic with a prediction of new cases by estimating a time-varying R0 to capture changes in the behavior of SIR model implies to new policy taken at different times and different locations of the world. This modified SIR model with the different values of R0 can be applied to different country scenario using the real time data report provided by the authorities during this pandemic. The effective evaluation of R0 can forecast the necessity of lockdown as well as reopening the economy.