Mitigating COVID-19 outbreak via high testing capacity and strong transmission-intervention in the United States

Shi Chen; Qin Li; Song Gao; Yuhao Kang; Xun Shi

To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in these states, a proactive approach needs to be taken, and quick detection and isolation of the exposed population need to be in place instead of being delayed until the onset of the symptoms. This measure can prevent the exposed population from potentially infecting other susceptible people. In Figure 3c , we plot the increase of infections in terms of D q (i.e., the temporal lag in putting a person into quarantine) for the states that are sensitive to change of D q , including NY, NJ, IL, GA, MI, CO, WI, LA, TX, PA, MA, and TN. The longer one waits to inform and isolate the exposed population, the more infection one observes. For example, there is a sharp transition for NY and MI. If the average detection and isolation time is more than 2 days, the number of infections will significantly increase.