Selected article for: "high probability and infection rate"
Author: Maryam Moghadami; Maryam Moghadami; Mohammad Hassanzadeh; ka wa; Aziz Hedayati; Mila Malekolkalami
Title: Modeling the Corona Virus Outbreak in IRAN
  • Document date: 2020_3_27
    • ID: f3qeoyvf_1
    Snippet: early April by the end of May (70 days). In the scenario, that no further actions are implemented, the spread of COVID-19 is expected to continue slowly, reaching 21,000 by mid-June. The same process has been applied to review the confirmed cases, deaths and recovered dataset. The forecast has been carried out for the next 30 days; a shorter timeframe has been selected as there is a high probability that the Iranian New Year's celebration, Farvar.....
    Document: early April by the end of May (70 days). In the scenario, that no further actions are implemented, the spread of COVID-19 is expected to continue slowly, reaching 21,000 by mid-June. The same process has been applied to review the confirmed cases, deaths and recovered dataset. The forecast has been carried out for the next 30 days; a shorter timeframe has been selected as there is a high probability that the Iranian New Year's celebration, Farvardin, first month of spring (30 th March in Western calendar) will have an impact on the infection rate following the event. The best predictive model predicts the number of reported deaths of COVDI-19 to be between 3,000-5,000 and the number of recovered cases between 5,000 -30,000 from the total confirmed cases in the range of 35,000-70,000 infected cases.

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