Author: Andreas Eilersen; Kim Sneppen
Title: Estimating cost-benefit of quarantine length for Covid-19 mitigation Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: b8a78ym6_49
Snippet: As already pointed out by 19 then the effectiveness of our method depends on the reproduction number of the disease. In the supplement we analyse a model of COVID-19 with pre-symptomatic transmission. This leads to a shorter serial interval and a smaller R 0 when infection is adjusted to an observed growth of 23 % per day for the epidemic. Even with massive pre-symptomatic transmission (infectious already 2.4 days before onset) our approach still.....
Document: As already pointed out by 19 then the effectiveness of our method depends on the reproduction number of the disease. In the supplement we analyse a model of COVID-19 with pre-symptomatic transmission. This leads to a shorter serial interval and a smaller R 0 when infection is adjusted to an observed growth of 23 % per day for the epidemic. Even with massive pre-symptomatic transmission (infectious already 2.4 days before onset) our approach still works quite well. At 30 % detection efficiency per infected individual (10 % per day in Fig. S2 (c)) our 1STQ strategy reduces the peak epidemic from 0.14 → 0.08. This should be compared to a reduction from 0.27 → 0.10 when the disease has no asymptomatic cases but a correspondingly larger R 0 (compare with the effect at 6 % per day in Fig. 3(c) ).
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