Selected article for: "excess risk and mortality excess risk"
Author: Amitava Banerjee; Laura Pasea; Steve Harris; Arturo Gonzalez-Izquierdo; Ana Torralbo; Laura Shallcross; Mahdad Noursadeghi; Deenan Pillay; Christina Pagel; Wai Keong Wong; Claudia Langenberg; Bryan Williams; Spiros Denaxas; Harry Hemingway
Title: Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults
  • Document date: 2020_3_24
    • ID: 11hi1jel_34
    Snippet: We do not know what the relative impact of excess deaths from COVID-19 over a 1-year period will be; but the clinical concern in England over the last weeks is that 'this is not seasonal flu'. We show that if the emergency is associated with a 20% increased mortality risk, then there will be 13791 and 110332 excess deaths in mitigation and "do nothing" scenarios and 1 death under full suppression. A doubling of the risk, although unlikely, is wor.....
    Document: We do not know what the relative impact of excess deaths from COVID-19 over a 1-year period will be; but the clinical concern in England over the last weeks is that 'this is not seasonal flu'. We show that if the emergency is associated with a 20% increased mortality risk, then there will be 13791 and 110332 excess deaths in mitigation and "do nothing" scenarios and 1 death under full suppression. A doubling of the risk, although unlikely, is worth considering due to uncertainty regarding the actual relative risk associated with COVID-19 and mounting healthcare burden around the world. It would result in 68957 and 551659 excess deaths in mitigation and "do nothing" scenarios respectively. A major concern is that these relative risks may change over time: for example if the health service is unable to cope. Even in the higher RR 2.0 model, full suppression would lead to virtually no excess mortality.

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