The Effect of Population Age and Climate on COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality.

Zilberlicht, Ariel; Abramov, Dan; Kugelman, Nir; Lavie, Ofer; Elias, Yossef; Abramov, Yoram

BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that presents an urgent challenge to global health and economy. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of population median age and mean ambient temperature on the COVID-19 global pandemic burden. METHODS We used databases from open access public domains to record population median age, mean ambient temperature, and the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths on days 14 and 28 from the pandemic outbreak for each country in the world. We then calculated the correlation between these parameters. RESULTS The analysis included 202 countries. A univariate analysis showed that population median age significantly correlated with the cumulative number of cases and deaths, while mean ambient temperature showed a significant inverse correlation with the cumulative number of deaths on days 14 and 28 from the epidemic outbreak. After a multivariate logistic regression analysis only population median age retained its statistically significant correlation. CONCLUSIONS Country population median age significantly correlated with COVID-19 pandemic burden while mean ambient temperature shows a significant inverse correlation only in univariate analysis. Countries with older populations encountered a heavier burden from the COVID-19 pandemic. This information may be valuable for health systems in planning strategies for combating this global health hazard.