Author: Daniel E Platt; Laxmi E Parida; Pierre Zalloua
Title: Lies, Gosh Darn Lies, and Not Enough Good Statistics: Why Epidemic Model Parameter Estimation Fails Document date: 2020_4_21
ID: 9916y6x0_26
Snippet: jurisdictions, Lebanon and New South Wales, Australia, show rates similar to each of the two New York State numbers. And while the New York State proportional model gives an expected factor of 2 in the rate, it is the cumulative rate that more closely resembles the growth and peak in New York, not the relative proportion rate. More, the shifts in test availability and distancing initiation are all visible in the New York data, which contributes t.....
Document: jurisdictions, Lebanon and New South Wales, Australia, show rates similar to each of the two New York State numbers. And while the New York State proportional model gives an expected factor of 2 in the rate, it is the cumulative rate that more closely resembles the growth and peak in New York, not the relative proportion rate. More, the shifts in test availability and distancing initiation are all visible in the New York data, which contributes to the difficulty even of identifying exponential growth regimes, much less identifying an exponential rate that constrains the available model parameter space.
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