Author: Spencer, Peter D.; Golinski, Adam
Title: Coronametrics: The UK turns the corner Cord-id: zua849mn Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: zua849mn
Snippet: There are many ways of analyzing the progress of an epidemic, but when it comes to short term forecasting, it is very hard to beat a simple time series regression model. These are good at allowing for the noise in day to day observations, extracting the trend and projecting it forward. We develop regression models to exploit this, using the daily statistics released by PHE and NHSE. These strongly suggest that the tide has turned and that taking one day with the next, the national figures for de
Document: There are many ways of analyzing the progress of an epidemic, but when it comes to short term forecasting, it is very hard to beat a simple time series regression model. These are good at allowing for the noise in day to day observations, extracting the trend and projecting it forward. We develop regression models to exploit this, using the daily statistics released by PHE and NHSE. These strongly suggest that the tide has turned and that taking one day with the next, the national figures for deaths from this virus will now fall back noticeably, easing the pressure on the NHS and its staff.
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