Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail

Wolfgang Bock; Barbara Adamik; Marek Bawiec; Viktor Bezborodov; Marcin Bodych; Jan Pablo Burgard; Thomas Goetz; Tyll Krueger; Agata Migalska; Barbara Pabjan; Tomasz Ozanski; Ewaryst Rafajlowicz; Wojciech Rafajlowicz,; Ewa Skubalska-Rafajlowicz; Sara Ryfczynska; Ewa Szczurek; Piotr Szymanski

The Polish data was generated using the data published by Statistics Poland (Gwny Urzd Statystyczny) 17, 18 . The population was generated using data on the size and structure of the population by sex and age in all local and administrative units of the country as of 30 June 2019. The households for Poland were generated from the projection for year 2020 published in the Household projection for the years 2016-2050; each voivodeship was processed separately to preserve regional heterogeneity. The households for the city of Wroc law were generated based on the National Census of Population and Housing 2011 19 , Households and families in the Lower Silesian Voivodeship, and resampled in order to fit the size of the city population reported on 30 June 2019.