Author: Meng-Chun Chang; Rebecca Kahn; Yu-An Li; Cheng-Sheng Lee; Caroline O Buckee; Hsiao-Han Chang
Title: Modeling the impact of human mobility and travel restrictions on the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Taiwan Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 7vh5ipro_14
Snippet: We ran a deterministic SEIR model to analyze the overall infection dynamics, including time to peak and peak size, and we also ran the models stochastically to better understand the initial stages of disease spread. We ran the stochastic model until (1) it reached n accumulated infections or (2) the total number of infections became 0 to estimate the probability of having more than n infections (denoted by Pn,k, where k represents the number of i.....
Document: We ran a deterministic SEIR model to analyze the overall infection dynamics, including time to peak and peak size, and we also ran the models stochastically to better understand the initial stages of disease spread. We ran the stochastic model until (1) it reached n accumulated infections or (2) the total number of infections became 0 to estimate the probability of having more than n infections (denoted by Pn,k, where k represents the number of initial infections), the time it takes to reach n infections (denoted by Tn,k), and the standard deviation of infection numbers at Tn,k (denoted by Vn,k). To assess the initial stages of the outbreak, we used n=1000 and k=3 as our baseline values.
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