Modeling the impact of human mobility and travel restrictions on the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Taiwan

Meng-Chun Chang; Rebecca Kahn; Yu-An Li; Cheng-Sheng Lee; Caroline O Buckee; Hsiao-Han Chang

of infections can occur with various combinations of length of reductions and percent reduction in intracity travel (e.g. 60% reduction for 2 months had similar outcomes as 70% reduction for 1 month). The effectiveness of travel reductions varied depending on how early into the outbreak they started and their duration; for example, if restrictions lasted at least three months, starting them as early as possible had the greatest impact on P1000,3, but if limited to only one month, starting them later sometimes had more of an impact and sometimes did not, depending on the context. Health officials can therefore take into consideration feasibility of different interventions, impact on society, and the capacity of the healthcare system to determine the optimal interventions and their duration. 5 We found that the volume of intercity travel around Lunar New Year, where both intercity movements and intracity colocation rates increased, can significantly increase the speed of virus spread. Another traditional holiday, Ching Ming festival, is coming soon (April 2 to 5), and the volume of human movement between cities during this period is expected to increase like Lunar New Year, but at a lower level. Our results suggest that it is important to avoid travel or reduce the impact of travel through measures such as limiting social interactions and wearing facemasks when taking public transportation to reduce the spread of the virus.