Author: Haoyang Sun; Borame Lee Dickens; Mark Chen; Alex Richard Cook; Hannah Eleanor Clapham
Title: Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: 2w3bx6p8_3
Snippet: We used the reported number of cases imported from Wuhan and flight data to generate an uncertainty distribution for the estimated number of imported cases from Wuhan to each location outside mainland China. This uncertainty was propagated to quantify the local outbreak risk using a branching process model. A COVID-19 introduction index was derived for each pair of donor and recipient countries, accounting for the local outbreak risk in the donor.....
Document: We used the reported number of cases imported from Wuhan and flight data to generate an uncertainty distribution for the estimated number of imported cases from Wuhan to each location outside mainland China. This uncertainty was propagated to quantify the local outbreak risk using a branching process model. A COVID-19 introduction index was derived for each pair of donor and recipient countries, accounting for the local outbreak risk in the donor country and the betweencountry connectivity.
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