Comparison of two different types of fractional-order COVID-19 distributed time-delay models with real data application

Yang, Liangli Su Yongmei Zhuo Xinjian

The outbreak of COVID-19 has a great impact on the world. Considering that there are different infection delays among different populations, which can be expressed as distributed delay, and the distributed time-delay is rarely used in fractional-order model to simulate the real data, here we establish two different types of fractional order (Caputo and Caputo–Fabrizio) COVID-19 models with distributed time-delay. Parameters are estimated by the least-square method according to the report data of China and other 12 countries. The results of Caputo and Caputo–Fabrizio model with distributed time-delay and without delay, the integer-order model with distributed delay are compared. These show that the fractional-order model can be better in fitting the real data. Moreover, Caputo order is better in short-term time fitting, Caputo–Fabrizio order is better in long-term fitting and prediction. Finally, the influence of several parameters is simulated in Caputo order model, which further verifies the importance of taking strict quarantine measures and paying close attention to the incubation period population.