SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in 12 Cities of India from July-December 2020

Velumani, A.; Nikam, C.; Suraweera, W.; Fu, S. H.; Gelband, H.; Brown, P. E.; Bogoch, I.; Nagelkerke, N.; Jha, P.

Objectives: We sought to understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in urban India, which has surprisingly low COVID-19 deaths. Design: Cross-sectional and trend analyses of seroprevalence in self-referred test populations, and of reported cases and COVID mortality data. Participants: 448,518 self-referred individuals using a nationwide chain of private laboratories with central testing of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and publicly available case and mortality data. Setting: 12 populous cities with nearly 92 million total population. Main outcome measures: Seropositivity trends and predictors (using a Bayesian geospatial model) and prevalence derived from mortality data and infection fatality rates (IFR). Results: For the whole of India, 31% of the self-referred individuals undergoing antibody testing were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seropositivity was higher in females (35%) than in males (30%) overall and in nearly every age group. In these 12 cities, seroprevalence rose from about 18% in July to 41% by December, with steeper increases at ages <20 and 20-44 years than at older ages. The ?M-shaped? age pattern is consistent with intergenerational transmission. Areas of higher childhood measles vaccination in earlier years had lower seropositivity. The patterns of increase in seropositivity and in peak cases and deaths varied substantially across cities. In Delhi, death rates and cases first peaked in June and again in November; Chennai had a single peak in July. Based local IFRs and COVID deaths (adjusted for undercounts), we estimate that 43%-65% of adults above age 20 had been infected (range of mid-estimates of 12%-77%) corresponding 26 to 36 million infected adults in these cities, or an average of 9-12 infected adults per confirmed case. Conclusion: Even with relatively low death rates, the large cities of India had remarkably high levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccination strategies need to consider widespread intergenerational transmission.