1628 Vaccination for Safe Surgery During The SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic: Modelling Study

INTRODUCTION: Compared to the general population, in the postoperative period, surgical patients are both at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and increased mortality in the event of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study modelled the impact of preoperative vaccination of patients aged ≥70 years having elective inpatient surgery. METHOD: The primary outcome was the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one death over one year following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Postoperative SARS-CoV-2 incidence and adjusted mortality risk difference for SARS-CoV-2 infection were estimated from the prospective GlobalSurg-CovidSurg Week study (90,146 elective surgery patients across 1,595 hospitals in 115 countries), were used to estimate lives saved by vaccination in the first 30 postoperative days. SARS-CoV-2 case and death registration data from the Office for National Statistics was used to estimate NNTs for the general population. Best and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty around estimates. RESULTS: Among patients aged ≥70 years undergoing any type of surgery, NNT was estimated to be 332 (best case: 213; worst case: 690). NNT was lower in the cancer surgery subgroup (245 [150-545]). This was more favourable than the NNT for vaccination of the general population aged ≥70 (588 [403-1032]). Globally, vaccinating elective surgery patients aged ≥70 years preoperatively was projected to save 27,356 lives in one year compared to vaccinating the same patients after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative pathways should be set up for the vaccination of patients aged ≥70. In settings with limited vaccine availability, elective cancer surgery patients should be prioritised for vaccination.