Reproductive number of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis based on global level evidence

Billah, M. A.; Miah, M. M.; Khan, M. N.

Background The coronavirus (COVID-19) is now a global concern because of its higher transmission capacity and associated adverse consequences including death. The reproductive number of COVID-19 provides an estimate on the possible extent of the transmission. This study aims to provide the average reproductive number of COVID-19 based on available global level evidence. Methods We searched three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct) to find studies reported the reproductive number of COVID-19. The searches were conducted using a pre-specified search strategy that includes keywords of COVID-19 and its reproductive number related terms, which were combined using the Boolean operators. Narrative synthesis was used to explain the studies included and the meta-analysis was used to estimate the average reproduction number of COVID-19. Results Total of 30 studies included in this review whereas 24 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The average estimated reproductive number was 2.70 (95% CI, 2.21-3.30). We found evidence of very high heterogeneity (99.5%) of the reproductive numbers reported in the included studies. The highest reproductive number was reported for Diamond Princes Cruise Ship, Japan (14.8). In the country-level, the higher reproductive number was reported for France (R, 6.32, 95% CI, 5.72-6.98) following Germany (R, 6.07, 95% CI, 5.51-6.69) and Spain (R, 5.08, 95% CI, 4.50-5.73). We also found estimation models, methods, and the number of cases considered to estimate reproductive number were played a role in arising the heterogeneity of the estimated reproductive number. Conclusion The estimated reproductive number indicates an exponential increase of COVID-19 infection in the coming days. Comprehensive policies and programs are important to reduce new infections as well as the associated adverse consequences including death.