Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China

Li, Rui; Lu, Wenliang; Yang, Xifei; Feng, Peihua; Muqimova, Ozarina; Chen, Xiaoping; Wei, Gang

Background and Objective: To predict the epidemic of COVID-19 based on quarantined surveillance from real world in China by modified SEIR model different from the previous simply mathematical model. Design and Methods: We forecasted the epidemic of COVID-19 based on current clinical and epidemiological data and built a modified SEIR model to consider both the infectivity during incubation period and the influence on the epidemic from strict quarantined measures. Results: The peak time of the curve for the infected newly diagnosed as COVID-19 should substantially present on Feb.5,2020(in non-Hubei areas) and Feb.19,2020(in Hubei. It is estimated that the peak of the curve of the cumulative confirmed cases will appear in non-Hubei areas on Mar.3,2020 and in Hubei province on Mar.10,2020,and the total number of the patients diagnosed as COVID-19 is 18,000 in non-Hubei areas and 78,000-96,000 in Hubei.The Chinese COVID-19 epidemic can be completely controlled in May,2020. Conclusions: COVID-19 is only a local outbreak in Hubei Province,China.It can be probably avoided the pandemic of global SARS-CoV-2 cases rise with the great efforts by Chinese government and its people.