Modeling and Forecasting Trend of COVID-19 Epidemic in Iran

Ali Ahmadi; Majid Shirani; Fereydoon Rahmani

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037671 doi: medRxiv preprint recommend personal hygiene, in particular hand washing and avoiding contact with suspected patients, social distance, discovering unknown cases of infection and early detection, trace direct contact and isolation of patients, which is emphasized by the healthcare system to overcome this disease. One article reported that up to 70% of the supply chain could be cut off and the epidemic could be controlled if contact and isolation, quarantine and isolation were appropriately accomplished (16) . The top priorities in Iran are now circular and comprehensive efforts to conduct epidemiological studies and identification of all aspects of the disease (source of disease, reservoir, pathways, infectivity, incubation period, incidence and prevalence, pathogenicity, immunogenicity, herd immunity, causes, epidemic and pandemic pattern, primary and secondary attack rates, response time, time needed for isolation and quarantine, treatment regimens, vaccines and other prevention methods, disease surveillance and statistical reporting) and evidence-based interventions and epidemic control.