Moving-average based index to timely evaluate the current epidemic situation after COVID-19 outbreak

Yun-ting He; Hao He; Jing Zhai; Xiao-jin Wang; Bing-shun Wang

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.24.20027730 doi: medRxiv preprint 9 10. We can see that the index increased slightly on February 18 and February 22, in part because the NHC data included not only laboratory-confirmed cases, but also clinically diagnosed cases over several days. Since the number of new cases in each category was not stated, they cannot be distinguished. The index remained below 1.0 until February 27. On February 28, the index rose to slightly above 1.0, but then soon fell back. From these three aspects, we conclude that the epidemic peak in China was about February 9. The epidemic has entered a period of decline since February 9, and has entered a stable remission period since February 17. On March 16, the EEI rose above 1.0 and didn't fell back, indicating that a new epidemic period caused by imported cases has begun. Because Hubei Province accounts for the majority of cases, the epidemic in Hubei . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.