Strategic Spatiotemporal Vaccine Distribution Halves Deaths due to an Infectious Disease

Grauer, Jens; Lowen, Hartmut; Liebchen, Benno

Covid-19 has caused hundred of thousands of deaths and an economic damage amounting to trillions of dollars, creating a desire for the rapid development of vaccine. Once available, vaccine is gradually produced, evoking the question on how to distribute it best. While official vaccination guidelines largely focus on the question to whom vaccines should be provided first (e.g. to risk groups), here we propose a generic strategy for their distribution in time and space, which sequentially prioritizes regions with a high local infection growth rate. To demonstrate this strategy, we develop an agent-based model describing the time-evolution of infection patterns and their response to vaccination. For heterogeneous infection patterns, the proposed strategy at least halves the number of deaths in our simulations compared to the standard practice of distributing vaccines proportionally to the population density. This applies for a wide range of reproduction numbers and vaccine production rates and might stimulate discussions on the importance of the spatiotemporal distribution of vaccines for official guidelines.