Computed Tomography-based Lung Residual Volume and Mortality of Patients With Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19).

Timaran-Montenegro, David Ernesto; Torres-Ramírez, Christian Alexander; Morales-Jaramillo, Leonardo Mauricio; Mateo-Camacho, Yohana Sarahi; Tapia-Rangel, Edgar Alonso; Fuentes-Badillo, Karla Daniela; Hernández-Rojas, Ana Milena; Morales-Domínguez, Valeria; Saenz-Castillo, Pedro Fernando; Parra-Guerrero, Lina Marcela; Jacome-Portilla, Katherine Isamara; Obrando-Bravo, Daniel Ernesto; Contla-Trejo, Giovanni Saul; Falla-Trujillo, Manuel Gerardo; Punzo-Alcaraz, Gerardo Rafael; Feria-Arroyo, Gustavo Adolfo; Chávez-Sastre, Alberto Joshua; Govea-Palma, Jovani; Carrillo-Álvarez, Santiago; Orozco-Vázquez, Julita Del Socorro

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES To assess the effect of computed tomography (CT)-based residual lung volume (RLV) on mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). MATERIALS AND METHODS A single-center, retrospective study of a prospectively maintained database was performed. In total, 138 patients with COVID-19 were enrolled. Baseline chest CT scan was performed in all patients. CT-based automated and semi-automated lung segmentation was performed using the Alma Medical workstation to calculate normal lung volume, lung opacities volume, total lung volume, and RLV. The primary end point of the study was mortality. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine independent predictors of mortality. RESULTS Overall, 84 men (61%) and 54 women (39%) with a mean age of 47.3 years (±14.3 y) were included in the study. Overall mortality rate was 21% (29 patients) at a median time of 7 days (interquartile range, 4 to 11 d). Univariate analysis demonstrated that age, hypertension, and diabetes were associated with death (P<0.01). Similarly, patients who died had lower normal lung volume and RLV than patients who survived (P<0.01). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that low RLV was the only independent predictor of death (odds ratio, 1.042; 95% confidence interval, 10.2-10.65). Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that a RLV ≤64% significantly increased the risk of death (odds ratio, 4.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-11.7). CONCLUSION Overall mortality of patients with COVID-19 may reach 21%. Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that reduced RLV was the principal independent predictor of death. Furthermore, RLV ≤64% is associated with a 4-fold increase on the risk of death.